The Forgotten Middle in 2033 | NORC at the University of Chicago

A new NORC at the University of Chicago analysis updating the groundbreaking “Forgotten Middle” study finds that there will be 16 million middle-income seniors in 2033. Many will struggle to pay for the health, personal care, and housing services they need. For instance, excluding home equity, nearly three-quarters of middle-income seniors in 2033 will have insufficient financial resources to pay for assisted living if they need and want it. Even with home equity, nearly 40 percent will not be able to afford assisted living. 

NORC published the original “Forgotten Middle” study in 2019. It was the fifth most-read Health Affairs article that year. That first-of-its-kind study examined how the number, demographics, health status, and financial resources of middle-income seniors would change in the coming decade. It demonstrated that many middle-income seniors will likely have health and mobility needs and will not be able to pay for services currently available in the market without additional financial help from family members. 

With support from The SCAN Foundation, NORC used data from the 2018 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to reassess the income thresholds, health needs, and care solutions most pertinent to the current policy debate. The updated research revealed several key findings:

• In addition to nearly doubling in size, the middle-income senior cohort will be more diverse in 2033, with people of color comprising 22 percent of the group.
• Many middle-income seniors will have health needs, like mobility limitations (56 percent) and cognitive impairments (31 percent), that make it hard to live independently.
• Nearly three-quarters of middle-income seniors will have insufficient resources to pay for private assisted living without selling their homes.
   

Read the full summary of the findings.